Betting | Oct 19, 2023

NFL Week 7 Best Bets

By Harry Bazley

USATSI 21454095

In Week 6 we saw two major upsets, with the '9ers and Eagles falling to the Browns and Jets. You may be wondering if these underdog wins have shaken up the sportsbooks. Well that's where we come in.

Today, we'll be scouring the markets for the best bets to place for Week 7 of the 2022/23 NFL season. Will it be another underdog victory or will we finally bet the under on Tyreek Hill? Read on to find out.

All odds are correct as of 19.10.2023 from Bet365. Check out our live odds comparison for all of these bets from sportsbooks across the market.

Spread: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 (-110)

The Bucs may be coming off a disappointing loss to Detroit, but they won 3 of their first 4 games this year and will be desperate to return to the win column. Not to mention, they'll be well rested after a Week 6 bye. This bodes very well with a shaky Falcons defense and an even shakier offense.

The Atlanta Falcons just gave up 3 passing touchdowns to Sam Howell, leading to a 24-16 loss to Washington at home. If Howell can find production like this on the road in ATL, Baker should be more than comfortable facing the same secondary in Raymond James Stadium.

You may be thinking 'what about Atlanta's 4th ranked run-defense'? Well, it's no secret that Tampa can't run the ball - in fact, they come into this game ranked 4th worst in that category - but this is a team that just won't quit on the ground game. So, it'll be a slow-moving matchup, but given the Falcons performance against the pass last week, especially in the red zone, I expect Baker Mayfield to cash in on their struggles.

If Tampa can pick up some early points, we could see Atlanta put the ball in the air to chase the deficit. And when this happened vs Washington last Sunday, Desmond Ridder failed to rise to the occasion and threw three interceptions to seal the loss. That kind of turnover rate is not off the cards vs the Bucs.

For all those reasons, I like the Falcons to lose by more than a field goal, meaning a payout for this bet.

Moneyline: Detroit Lions (+140)

The Lions take on the Baltimore Ravens this week and with Detroit at 5-1, I'm not sure why they're the underdogs here. Sure, they've had a fairly easy schedule with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Carolina Panthers and Green Bay Packers in the last three weeks. But, they beat the Chiefs, and as much as KC aren't the same team this year, it still says a lot about the Lions.

The loss of David Montgomery will undoubtedly affect the rushing stats and the play-action opportunities, but Jamhyr Gibbs is a very talented back and shouldn't struggle in the starting role. Plus, the Lions have no trouble throwing the ball, with Jared Goff putting up 380 yards through the air last week.

Meanwhile, the Ravens had perhaps their worst offensive performance vs the Titans. Lamar threw just one touchdown and an interception, while Justin Tucker put up 6 field goals on the day. Their defense held up pretty well, but facing Ryan Tannehill isn't exactly a challenge. Not to mention, they lost to Pittsburgh the week before.

It's clear to me that the Ravens are in a slump and if we see similar performances from the two games in this matchup, Detroit should have no trouble walking away with a win. Dan Campbell's side are currently on a four game win streak and have never scored less than 20 points.

At odds of +140, the Lions to win is a great value bet.

Spread: New York Giants +2.5 (+125)

Brian Daboll has finally started to turn things around for Big Blue. They may have put another loss on the record last week, but they held the Buffalo Bills to just 14 points and should have won the game, if not for a missed holding call in the endzone. Coming within one score of a win in Buffalo is a hard enough task as it is, and the Giants did it without their starting QB. Whether Daniel Jones is back for this matchup or not, I expect them to put up a better fight than the spread suggests, with Saquon Barkley leading the way.

Washington are a tough side, but if New York can hold Josh Allen to just two scores, they can easily do the same against Sam Howell & Co. They should keep this within a field goal and they could even come away with a shock victory.

Spread: San Francisco 49ers: -7.0 (+100)

This one is a no-brainer. The 49ers are the best team in football. Sure, they lost to Cleveland, but the Browns have the top defense in the NFL and San Fran were missing Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey for a lot of the matchup. McCaffrey's injury is now a day-to-day issue, and we could very well see him suit-up for Monday Night football next week.

That being said, I'm not sure it even matters. The '9ers are playing Minnesota, who have completely fallen off a cliff in their season projections. The defense ranks 15th overall and the offense ranks 18th in points per game, which is set to drop even further with Justin Jefferson out of the lineup. Kirk Cousins will struggle against this '9ers secondary.

San Francisco have the 2nd best offense in terms of points per game, backed up by an elite defense ranked 3rd in the league. Brock Purdy may have struggled last week, but to think that he won't eat against a mediocre secondary is very questionable.

San Fran should easily cover this spread and win by more than a touchdown, and with plus money on the odds, it's a steal.

(Header Image Credit: Jeffrey Becker - USA TODAY Sports)