For any of you that regularly venture onto the NFL news page of our site, I’m the guy you’ll find ranting in all the weekly recaps.
I thought I’d take a break from rambling on about how much I hate Jared Goff, to talk about the betting side of the NFL and my journey into parlay bets.
If you’re unsure what a parlay bet is, or you’re just looking for a rundown on NFL betting, we’ve got that covered. Otherwise, let’s get into it…
It all started with me placing a few £1 parlays on a bunch of different player props, and I got lucky. I landed a 116.25/1 parlay on my first attempt for the Week 9 games. So, I did the same thing the very next week and broke my rule of £1 bets for just one parlay. I placed a single £5 bet and somehow, it was the one that landed. The odds were 80.64/1, meaning the payout was £403.20.
At this point I was convinced I was onto something. I kept placing similar bets and I was comfortable knowing that I had plenty of profits to play with.
Fast-forward 3 weeks, I hadn’t landed a single bet, I had come very very close, losing bets by just 1 pick on a regular basis. But I could feel a win coming and finally, it did…
On Week 13 of the NFL, I placed a parlay bet including player props from the Dolphins-49ers, Seahawks-Rams and Chiefs-Bengals games. The odds were 240/1 and I wagered a £4 stake, bringing the total payout to £960.
From that point I was sure I had cracked the code, but obviously I just got lucky. So, as you may have guessed, I spent the next 5 weeks losing bet after bet (always making sure to never wager more than £5 on a single bet). So, I devised a new plan…
I decided to play the stats.
I downloaded all of the individual offensive player stats for the season. I analysed trends over the season and over recent games, looking at average yardages, average touchdowns scored, interceptions thrown and so on. I also looked at the defense rankings in the passing game, run game, red zone defense stats, touchdowns allowed etc, and weighed that up against the offensive trends they were facing. I put in hours and hours of work.
After all this, me and 4 of my friends put £12.50 each into a pot, and we decided to place 50 unique bets on the Wild Card Round, all with a stake of £1.25 each.
And guess what? We lost. Every. Single. One.
We did get quite close - including this bet, which was roughly 700/1 odds - where JK Dobbins had 13 rushing attempts (1 away from the bet), Adam Thielen had 3 catches (1 away from the bet) and Ceedee Lamb had 68 yards (5 away from the bet).
Don’t get me wrong, I had great fun watching the games and watching each bet get closer and closer to winning. It was definitely worth it, especially as it was only £12.50.
But the one thing this has taught me, is no matter how much you know about the sport, or how deep you dive into the stats, sometimes things just don’t pan out the way that the stats say they usually do.
Whether it was Brandon Aiyuk dropping an easy touchdown catch, or Stefon Diggs getting tackled 4 yards short of the end zone - there’s always going to be something that doesn’t go your way. At least, almost always.
Now, I’ll be doing the same thing this weekend. But keeping the stakes low as usual. If you’re a fan of prop ro parlay betting, it’s a great way to keep things fun and interesting, all while keeping the cost low.
Moral of the story as always: when the fun stops, stop. Oh and make sure you win big early, so you can just play with the winnings, but that part is much easier said than done.