Betting | Aug 13, 2023

2023/24 AFC East Odds, Analysis & Predictions

By Harry Bazley

USATSI 19840068

With Aaron Rodgers moving to the Big Apple, the AFC East is now expected to be one of the toughest divisions in the league. The Bills may have won the last three titles, but the Jets will be doing their best to disrupt the rankings in the division, if not the whole conference. Meanwhile, Miami have made some huge additions to their roster and the Patriots still have the greatest head coach in history on their sideline.

Today we'll be breaking down how the bookmakers see the division, analysing the odds and making our prediction for the winner of the AFC East for the 2023 NFL season.

AFC East Best Odds

Team Best Odds Sportsbook
Buffalo Bills +130 BetMGM
New York Jets +270 DraftKings
Miami Dolphins +300 bet365
New England Patriots +900 BetRivers

Buffalo Bills (+130)

The Buffalo Bills are favourites to win the AFC East this season at odds of +130 in the BetMGM sportsbook, and for good reason...

Sean McDermott has created one of the most consistently successful regular-season teams in the league. They frequently rank in the top 10 for both offensive and defensive performances, but somehow, they always seem to fall before the big game - losing 2 wild card matchups, 2 divisional playoff games and a conference championship since McDermott took over in 2017.

Regardless, Buffalo have topped the AFC East three years in a row and went an impressive 13-3 in 2022 to win the division by 4.5 games. The half game difference is the result of their Week 17 matchup being suspended after Damar Hamlin suffered a cardiac arrest on the field.

The roster is full of talent, but a lot of Buffalo's success comes at the hands of Josh Allen, who is widely regarded as the best quarterback in the division and is coming off a 5,000-yards, 42-touchdown season. He is currently tied with Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow in the odds to win 2024 MVP

The Bills have kept most of their offensive unit intact, losing running back Devin Singletary but adding tight end Dalton Kincaid and guards Conner McGovern and O'Cyrus Torrence. James Cook should put in a good performance as the new RB1, while Kincaid should add yet another outlet for Allen in the passing game.

The real difficulty will be overcoming the loss of their leading tackler, linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, who moved to Chicago in the offseason. The lack of Edmunds will undoubtedly have an impact in halting the opposition's ground game, but the Bills secondary should hold up as well as last year - a season in which they ranked 14th in passing yards allowed per game.

So, as long as McDermott finds a way to minimise the effects of losing Edmunds, there are no major worries for Buffalo this season, other than facing the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs of course...

New York Jets (+270)

The Jets rank second in the NFC East odds at +270 in the DraftKings sportsbook.

New York had one of the best defenses in the league last season, ranking fourth in points and yards allowed per game, largely due to the addition of defensive rookie of the year Sauce Gardner. But while the defense played lights-out, the offense failed to keep up, leading to a 7-10 record and last place in the division. Now, that could all change with the signing of future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers.

Rodgers will bring decades of experience to New York, providing stability in key moments and hopefully more success in close matchups - something they consistently struggled with last year. 6 of the Jets’ 10 losses came in one-score games and they closed out the season with a 6-game losing streak after starting 7-4.

Thankfully, Rodgers isn't the only new addition to the offense. No.12 is joined by former Green Bay teammate, C.J. Uzomah who will add more depth to the TE room alongside Tyler Conklin. Uzomah is currently out of action but per NBC updates, his "injury isn’t expected to keep him out of Week 1".

So, the Jets passing game is set to improve massively, but with the return of star running back Breece Hall hanging in the balance, Robert Salah may be more limited than he'd like. Hall got off to an impressive start in his rookie season - racking up 463 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns in 5 games - but suffered a ACL tear in late October and hasn't seen the turf since. His involvement in the 23/24 season is still uncertain, but he was recently put on the PUP list so we could see him put on the pads very soon.

If Hall can take to the field within the first few weeks of the season, the Jets should have a very reliable ground game. If not, they'll likely run a split-rep scheme between Michael Carter and Zonovan Knight. Both are talented enough to rack up some good yardage, but without Hall, we may see a more one-dimensional offense and this could be an issue for New York.

The bottom line is: the offense desperately needs to improve and I fully expect that to happen with Rodgers at the helm, but without their star running back, their ability to test the defense in more than one way could be in question.

The Jets stand a good chance to log a winning record but it will be tough to hit the 13/14 wins needed to contend with Buffalo for the top spot.

Miami Dolphins (+300)

Miami currently sit at +300 to win the AFC East in the bet365 sportsbook.

After a great start to the 2022 season - beating the Patriots, Bills and Ravens to go 3-0 off the bat - the Dolphins lost momentum when Tua Tagovailoa suffered the first of several injuries that eventually put him out of action, resulting in a 9 win total.

Miami undoubtedly have one of the most explosive offenses, with arguably the best WR duo in the league: Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill. Even though their star QB didn't play beyond December, the two game-breaking receivers combined for 3,066 receiving yards and 15 touchdowns last season.

What held the Fins back from the playoffs was a mediocre defense in desperate need of some new additions, and that was no secret to Dolphins GM Chris Grier. After ranking 26th in defensive EPA per play, Grier picked up elite linebacker Bradley Chubb in Week 9 and finished 19th in that metric by the end of the year. And the moves didn't stop there... Linebacker David Long Jr. and Super Bowl winning cornerback Jalen Ramsey were both added to the roster this offseason With Ramsey lining up alongside Xavien Howard, Miami will have another deadly duo in its lineup. Head coach Mike McDaniel also brought in defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, who was named as the "most difficult DC to read and attack" by Sean McVay, Kyle Shanahan and Matt LaFleur.

So, if the offense hasn't lost any playmakers and the defense has picked up a hoard of fresh talent, why do they rank so low in the odds?

Well, there's something to be said for the Bills just being the Bills and the Jets having so much hype behind them. But, the biggest concern for the Dolphins is not the success of others, it's that Tua Tagovailoa won't stay healthy.

Mike White now serves as backup QB, but if Tua ends up on the sideline, it's unlikely White will lead them to glory. As we witnessed last season, Miami's success rides on Tua being at the helm. So, their hopes of topping the AFC East rest solely on his shoulders...

New England Patriots (+900)

The Patriots are at the bottom of the odds to win the AFC East at +900 in the BetRivers sportsbook.

The New England Patriots once ran this division, racking up 16 titles in 18 years from 2001 to 2019, but since Tom Brady left the dynasty behind, Bill Belichick has been struggling to find the same level of success without him.

Part of their offensive struggle is certainly down to having a young QB who took a real step in the wrong direction after being runner up for 2021 OROY. But more to blame was having non-offensive coaches run the offense last season, which unsurprisingly did not work.

The combination of Matt Patricia and Joe Judge calling the shots was about as bad as it gets. In 2022/23 the offense ranked 22nd in points per game, 26th in yards per game and dead last in red zone touchdown percentage. As a result, Belichick has reunited with Bill O'Brien, who has plenty of experience, including a trip to the Super Bowl with New England in 2011. O'Brien's job is to put Mac Jones back on track and get the best out of the former first-round pick. That is unless Bailey Zappe can beat him out for the starting spot. Either way, the offense will be led by a young QB with very little experience in the NFL.

With that being said, New England's defense was very impressive given the circumstances - ranking 8th in yards per game, 11th in points against per game and logging the third-most sacks per game. Those numbers should only improve with 17th overall pick Christian Gonzales joining the secondary as a predicted starter this season.

If O'Brien can squeeze every ounce out of the offense, the Pats could really turn the division on its head, but it's not where I'd put my money...

Prediction: Buffalo Bills

Despite Miami and New York making great moves in the offseason, the changes just aren't enough to fix the deeper issues in their rosters.

The Jets will be relying on an ageing vet to lead a passing game with a mediocre o-line protecting him, and this could be a huge problem if they don't have the threat of Breece Hall in the ground game. And the Dolphins The Dolphins will be relying on a quarterback that suffered three concussions in a single season and is very prone to ending up on the sideline.

Meanwhile, New England are making the right moves to put Mac Jones in a better situation, but they're a few years away from having the experience a team needs to compete in a tough division.

That leaves us with the Bills, and while Buffalo have one of the hardest schedules in the league - with road trips against the Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals - they could probably lose all three games and still win the AFC East. They have a dynamic squad that consistently succeeds on both sides of the ball, with just one offseason loss in Tremaine Edmunds. I fully expect to see the Buffalo Bills atop the AFC East for the fourth year in a row.

So, will the Bills do it again or will New York live up to all the hype?

Let us know your thoughts on Twitter & Instagram and be sure to follow for all the latest sports and betting news.

(Header Image Credit: Mark Konezny - USA TODAY Sports)

Want to see more division odds and predictions?

Check out the following articles: